The Economist. (2023, November 30). A new age of the worker will overturn conventional thinking. The Economist. Retrieved from [https://www.economist.com/].
- Shrinking Wage Gaps: Since 2016, the lowest earners in America have seen faster wage growth than the highest earners. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend, reversing 40% of the pre-tax wage inequality that had developed over the previous 40 years.
- European Trends: Similar trends are observed in Europe. In Britain, wage growth is stronger at the lower end, and in continental Europe, wage agreements are increasingly favoring lower-paid workers.
- Reassessment of Inequality: Contrary to popular belief, after considering taxes and government transfers, American income inequality has barely increased since the 1960s.
- Labor Market Dynamics: Three key forces — demand, demography, and digitization — are influencing labor markets in ways that benefit workers.
- Increased Labor Demand: Government spending and central bank policies in the rich world have kept labor demand high, contributing to wage growth.
- Demographic Changes: The slowing growth of the prime working-age population in the rich world is tightening labor markets, with unemployment rates at historical lows.
- Digitization and Education: The college wage premium has decreased. In 2015, college graduates earned two-thirds more than high school graduates; by 2019, this gap reduced to half.
- Impact of AI: Generative AI is expected to boost productivity more for lower performers, helping reduce wage gaps.
- Vulnerabilities: This “golden age” for workers is at risk from potential recessions and government policies that could reduce economic efficiency.
- Broader Implications: If the trend continues, it could challenge the pervasive belief that capitalism fails workers, influencing perceptions on immigration, manufacturing, and economic policies.